Brent to drop the most on the weekly basis since February?

Yesterday oil prices managed to slightly rebound after a 3-day slide. Support came in the form of market expectations that the US may replenish its strategic reserves.
 

The US strategic oil reserve – world’s largest emergency stockpile of crude oil to be used in times of supply disruptions and to meet country’s obligations under the International Energy Program.  

Now Brent bulls are fighting hard to stay above yesterday’s close at ~83.50.
 

However, the downside pressure is still strong as the US Fed signaled (last Wednesday) the potential for the interest rates to remain unchanged until later in the year.
 

Keeping rates high could alter economic growth and thus demand for black gold.

A cooling on the geopolitical front, with the potential for temporary ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and an uptick in US oil inventories is taking its toll on oil prices.

On the demand side, despite the approaching summer (major driving season) in the US, implied demand (reported by the EIA and based on the 4-week average of product supplied) has fallen for four consecutive weeks and is now at its lowest seasonal level since 2013 (source: Bloomberg).
 

From a technical perspective …

• The current price is below 21 and 50-period simple moving average (SMA), underscoring a potential downtrend. The 100-period SMA is still below the current price, indicating a potential long-term uptrend
   
• The relative strength index (RSI) is close to the lower boundary (<30 – oversold, >70 – overbought), indicating further downward potential. A break below 30 would indicate the potential for a technical pullup
   
• To the downside, $83 is set to provide an immediate support, while to the upside, the 50-period SMA could be the key resistance/target level for the BRN bulls