This Week: Markets focus on EU and US inflation data.

• US markets close on Thursday, Nov 28 (Thanksgiving)
   
• Inflation data expected from Germany/Eurozone, Japan and US (PCE)
   
• Uncertainty prevails around Fed rate cuts
   
• Geopolitical tensions continue to shape global market sentiment

The final week of November is set to be relatively quiet, with US markets closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday, the 28th.
 

Despite the scarcity of scheduled tier-1 data releases out of major economies, often relied on as volatility triggers, it doesn’t mean markets will be barren of trading opportunities.

Markets will be focusing on the key inflation data out of the likes of Germany/Eurozone, Japan (Tokyo specifically), and the US (PCE).

Also, there remain uncertainties over Fed rate cuts, along with persistent geopolitical tensions that continue to influence global market sentiment worldwide.

Events Watchlist:
 

• Tuesday, Nov 26th: FOMC meeting minutes (USDInd)

Recall that the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, at its early-November policy meeting.

Should the meeting’s minutes reveal greater convictions for a December 25-bps rate cut as well, with such odds now at 59%, that could see the US dollar index ease away from its one-year high.
 

• Wednesday, Nov 27th: RBNZ rate decision and US Oct. PCE price index (NZDUSD)

New Zealand’s central bank is widely expected to cut rates by another 50-basis points. Meanwhile, economists predict that the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – ticked up year-on-year.

NZDUSD could hit a 1-year low below 0.580 if the RBNZ signals even more rate cuts ahead, along with a higher-than-expected US PCE that complicates the Fed’s plans to cut rates in the months ahead.
 

• Thursday, Nov 28th: Germany Nov. CPI (EURUSD)

Economists predict that the consumer price index (CPI) in the Eurozone’s largest economy shrunk by 0.2% this month compared to October (month-on-month).

Germany’s CPI is often a precursor to the broader Eurozone’s CPI due the next day (Friday, Nov. 29th).

A larger-than-expected drop in the CPI could hasten rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), in turn perhaps heaping more pressure on EURUSD that’s already at a 2-year low.
 

• Friday, Nov 29th: Tokyo Nov. CPI; Japan Oct. jobless rate, retail sales, industrial production (USDJPY)

Economists predict that Tokyo’s inflation figures, often a leading indicator to the nationwide CPI prints due later, grew stronger this month, with retail sales and industrial production strengthening in tandem.

If so, that could pave the way for the Bank of Japan to hike rates, while potentially dragging USDJPY below its 21-day SMA.
 

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:
 

Monday, November 25

• NZD: New Zealand 3Q retail sales; October trade balance
   
• SGD: Singapore October CPI
   
• GER40 index: Germany November IFO business climate
   

Tuesday, November 26

• SG20 index: Singapore October industrial production
   
• USDInd: FOMC minutes; November consumer confidence
   

Wednesday, November 27

• NZD: RBNZ rate decision
   
• CN50 index: China October industrial profits
   
• US30 index: US weekly jobless claims; October PCE, personal income and spending; 3Q GDP (second estimate)
   

Thursday, November 28

• AUD: Speech by RBA Governor Michelle Bullock; Eurozone November economic confidence
   
• EUR: Germany November CPI
   
• US markets closed for Thanksgiving
   

Friday, November 29

• JPY: Japan November Tokyo CPI; October jobless rate, retail sales, industrial production
   
• TWN index: Taiwan 3Q GDP
   
• EUR: Eurozone November CPI; Germany October retail sales, November unemployment
   
• GBP: BOE meeting minutes
   
• CAD: Canada 3Q GDP